Monica's story

央行近期持续发声表示要“择机”降准降息，这一表述背后实则蕴含着复杂的考量。从表面上看，面对市场对于降准降息的呼声，央行似乎并不急于采取行动。

在汇率层面，当前存在一种看似矛盾的情形。在贸易摩擦背景下，美国指责中国故意低估人民币汇率，主张人民币应升值；然而，若我国实施降息，人民币汇率又将承受巨大的贬值压力。究其缘由，最初的一种假设是，从贸易部门视角出发，人民币存在升值需求，而非贸易部门认为人民币应贬值，这或许是造成上述矛盾现象的原因。但即便这一假设成立，也并不能直接阐释央行为何不急于此刻降准降息。

更为关键的是，人民币与美元国债利率差过大这一因素。这一利差导致贸易部门外汇回流难度显著提升，同时国内资本外流倾向不断升高，这很可能是央行审慎决策的另一个重要原因，且诸多证据能够对此予以佐证。

当政府在决策过程中，面临着两大核心问题。其一，人民币（包括美元储备）留存于海外，能否为国内带来益处？以日本为例，在广场协议之后，日资纷纷选择出海。尽管日本的GDP增长陷入停滞，但GNP却一直保持增长态势。其二，倘若期望人民币回流，促使资本重新投资国内，进而拉动经济发展，究竟应采取何种举措？

基于上述假设，若美联储在降息之前，即中美国债利差尚未缩减之前，央行实施降息的可能性微乎其微。当前，美联储因贸易战引发的对内通胀担忧加剧，其态度依然强硬。只有当美国经济数据，诸如CPI、就业数据等明显回落，美联储开启政策转向或落实降息之后，中国人民银行才具备降息的空间。

此外，还存在着另一种潜在可能性。假如国内资产价格压力居高不下，同时就业、CPI等数据表现欠佳，这也将迫使央行采取降息措施。然而，就目前情况而言，虽然数据不尽如人意，但仍处于可接受范围，因此这种情况暂时并不成立。

市场上也有观点认为，当前货币政策或许已然陷入流动性陷阱。降息所带来的流动性难以切实惠及实体经济，或者其边际效应极为有限。更为甚者，降息所释放的流动性仅会促使资本外流，这或许正是央行反复强调“择机”降准降息的缘由所在。

鉴于上述种种情况，央行显然期望其他部门能够更多地发挥积极作用，尤其是财政部门。近年来，财政收入持续紧张，地方专项债主要应用于固定资产投资，而超长期国债用于消费的占比目前仍相对较少（不仅数量远远不足，且需满足诸多前置条件）。此外，若过多的财政支出投向投资领域，将对民间投资产生挤出效应，财政的掣肘因素众多。但无论怎样，提高赤字上限、增加消费补贴等措施均具有积极意义。并且，对于房产收储、保障房建设以及政府应付账款支付等方面，若将资金投向市场，能够有效注入流动性，进而带来正面效应。

基于以上分析，未来市场关注的重点主要集中在以下三个方面：

1. 美国核心数据，诸如CPI、就业数据等，将如何影响市场对美联储降息的预期；
2. 国内各部门，特别是财政部门对于消费的补贴是否存在超出市场预期的情况；
3. 中国国内的经济数据是否会超预期回落。

从资本市场角度来看，唯有广义消费板块的收入和盈利率先实现增长，才能够带动金融板块之外的其他板块（新经济消费板块除外）。新经济消费有望引领传统消费（消费与科技相融合），实现率先发展。

基于上述研究和判断，后续的投资配置建议如下：重点布局新经济消费、科技领域，同时兼顾传统消费与红利板块。

Title: Considerations Behind the PBOC’s “Timing” of RRR and Interest Rate Cuts and Emerging Market Opportunities

Recently, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has repeatedly stated that it will “choose the right time” to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates. Behind this phrasing lie complex considerations. On the surface, facing market calls for easing, the PBOC seems in no rush to take action.

At the exchange rate level, there is a seemingly paradoxical situation. Against the backdrop of trade frictions, the United States accuses China of deliberately undervaluing the RMB and argues for RMB appreciation. However, if China cuts interest rates, the RMB would come under significant depreciation pressure. One initial hypothesis is that, from the perspective of the trade sector, there is a demand for RMB appreciation, but non-trade sectors don’t support such an appreciation, which may explain the contradictory phenomena. Yet even if this hypothesis holds, it does not fully explain why the PBOC is hesitant to cut RRR and interest rates at this moment.

A more critical factor is the large interest rate spread between RMB and U.S. Treasuries. This wide spread significantly hampers the repatriation of foreign exchange by the trade sector and increases the tendency of domestic capital outflow — another likely reason behind the PBOC’s cautious stance, supported by multiple pieces of evidence.

In the government’s decision-making process, two core questions arise:

First, can keeping RMB (including U.S. dollar reserves) overseas bring benefits to the domestic economy? Taking Japan as an example, after the Plaza Accord, Japanese capital flowed overseas. Although Japan’s GDP growth stagnated, its GNP continued to grow.

Second, if the goal is to encourage RMB to return and capital to reinvest domestically to stimulate economic growth, what measures should be taken?

Based on the above assumptions, it is highly unlikely that the PBOC would cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve begins easing — that is, before the spread between U.S. and Chinese bonds narrows. Currently, the Fed remains hawkish due to heightened domestic inflation concerns driven by the trade war. Only when U.S. economic data, such as CPI and employment figures, show a significant decline and the Fed initiates a policy shift or actual rate cuts, would the PBOC gain the space to ease its own policies.

There is also another potential scenario: if domestic asset prices remain under heavy pressure while employment and CPI data significantly worsen, the PBOC might be forced to cut rates. However, based on current conditions, although the data is not ideal, it remains within an acceptable range, making such a situation unlikely for now.

Some market views suggest that the current monetary policy may already be trapped in a liquidity trap: liquidity released through rate cuts fails to meaningfully reach the real economy, or its marginal effect is extremely limited. Worse, the liquidity might merely drive capital outflows — possibly the key reason why the PBOC keeps emphasizing that it will “choose the right time” to adjust RRR and rates.

Given all these factors, it is evident that the PBOC expects other departments, especially the fiscal authorities, to play a more active role. In recent years, fiscal revenues have remained tight. Local government special bonds have mainly been used for fixed-asset investments, while the proportion of ultra-long-term treasury bonds allocated to consumption remains relatively small (not only is the volume insufficient, but stringent preconditions must also be met). Furthermore, excessive fiscal spending in the investment sector could crowd out private investment. Despite numerous constraints on fiscal policy, measures such as raising the fiscal deficit cap and increasing consumer subsidies would have positive effects. Additionally, directing funds toward property acquisition, affordable housing construction, and payment of government arrears could inject effective liquidity into the market, yielding positive outcomes.

Based on the above analysis, future market focus will mainly concentrate on three aspects:

1. How key U.S. data, such as CPI and employment figures, will influence expectations for Fed rate cuts;

2. Whether domestic departments, particularly the fiscal side, will introduce consumer subsidies exceeding market expectations;

3. Whether China’s domestic economic data will decline more than expected.

From a capital market perspective, only when revenue and profits in the broader consumption sector recover first can sectors outside finance (excluding the new economy consumption sector) be lifted. New economy consumption is expected to lead the traditional consumption sector (through the fusion of consumption and technology) and achieve early development.

Based on the above research and judgment, the following investment strategy is recommended: prioritize new economy consumption and technology sectors, while also considering traditional consumption and dividend sectors.

从孩子出生的那一天起，你的世界就发生了变化。不可避免的，孩子就成为了你生命中的一部分。她的占比可以很大，也可以很小，但你无法忽视她的存在。对于母亲来说，承担的责任、消耗的精力以及付出的时间都会远远大于父亲。

在23年的时候，有一部电影《消失的她》。结局导演安排被害的女人肚子里有一个胎儿。我当时跟妻子说，我很不喜欢这种强行的设定，一个女人的价值、生命的意义无需用孩子来去衡量或者升华。一年半时间过去了，当我自己有了孩子以后，尤其还是女儿时，我发现我需要推翻自己的当初的言论。一个女人可以很伟大，生命可以很有意义，但是如果她有孩子一定会是一件非常重要非常重要的事情。生养小孩都会让她更加伟大。

女性新中国成立这么多年来，地位是很高的。但是最近有一些很不好的趋势，也是我担心自己女儿的未来。首先是国内经济增长停滞。当整个社会蛋糕无法做大时，人和人之间的博弈往往会更加剧烈。而此时，男性会比女性更占优势。日本就是一个很好的例子。当中国无可避免的在走日本的老路时，可以发现，日本女性的地位在过去三十年是下降的。年轻女性在无法获取增量蛋糕时，往往会更依靠男性。

其次是男女对立情绪的高涨。无论是国内还是国外，这种趋势都很明显。国内的有些女权带有某种女性特权的味道，已经引起很多男性的不满。无论是B站还是知乎这些男性向的论坛、还是消费品的转移变化、亦或者影视剧的选择评价都有明显的趋势。国外就更明显了，搞政治正确的团体遭到唾弃，右翼甚至极右翼保守思潮席卷全球。美国甚至有的地方连女性堕胎权都保不住了。

再次是不稳定的环境。改革开放这四十年，是中国历史上最好的四十年。但你不能希望这四十年再来一次。世界历史告诉我们，承平日久是少数，战争动乱才是多数。虽然无法想象动乱年代会如何到来，但是这几年，世界上越来越多的局部战争可能会导致更多的骚乱。我希望台湾可以和平解决，我也希望政治权力能够平稳交接。

最后是教育和价值观的错位。AI的出现可能会创造一些工作岗位，但应该会消除更多的办公室岗位。反倒是体力劳动者目前看影响最小。这意味着，我们不需要这么多高等教育。除非你是最top的1%。中国目前60%的新增就业都集中在零售、餐饮、物流、保安、保洁这些领域，未来只会更多。文体行业也很拉跨，制造业本来就不行，金融是被打压的对象。而且现在都是独生子女，都是被夸赞捧在手心里，望子成龙风气甚嚣尘上。年轻人承受压力和被输出的价值观可能会和他以后面对的现实截然不同。

朝气蓬勃的老年人，暮气沉沉的年轻人，半死不活的中年人。

这个可能就是现在时代的缩影，也是未来时代的缩影。

在这个时代，我们要养育好孩子，但更要养育好自己。一代人会有一代人的命运。毕竟，历史上大多数存在的人，都不会留下后代。

From the moment a child is born, your world changes. Inevitably, the child becomes a part of your life. Her presence can be significant or small, but you cannot ignore her existence. For mothers, the responsibilities, energy consumption, and time invested are far greater than for fathers.

In 2023, there was a movie titled The Vanishing Woman. In the ending, the director arranged for the victimized woman to be pregnant. I told my wife at the time that I didn’t like this forced narrative, that a woman’s value and the meaning of life should not be measured or elevated by having a child. A year and a half later, after having a child of my own, especially a daughter, I realized I needed to revise my earlier statement. A woman can be great, and life can be meaningful, but having children will undoubtedly be a very important thing for her. Raising children only makes her greater.

Since the founding of New China, women’s status has been very high. However, recently, there have been some worrying trends, which make me concerned about my daughter’s future. First, the domestic economic growth is stagnating. When the social pie can’t grow, the competition between people tends to intensify. In this case, men generally have an advantage over women. Japan is a good example. As China inevitably follows Japan’s path, it becomes apparent that the status of Japanese women has declined over the past thirty years. Young women, unable to gain new opportunities, often rely more on men.

Second, there is an increasing sentiment of gender opposition. This trend is evident both domestically and internationally. Some forms of feminism in China carry an air of female privilege, which has sparked dissatisfaction among many men. Whether on male-oriented platforms like Bilibili or Zhihu, in the shifts in consumer goods, or in the choice and evaluation of TV shows and movies, a clear trend is emerging. This is even more evident abroad, where politically correct groups face backlash, and right-wing or even far-right conservative ideologies are sweeping the world. In some places in the U.S., women’s right to abortion is even being taken away.

Third, the environment is unstable. The past forty years of reform and opening up have been the best in Chinese history. But we cannot expect this period to repeat. History tells us that prolonged peace is rare; wars and turmoil are more common. Although it’s hard to imagine how times of chaos will come, in recent years, local wars around the world are likely to lead to more unrest. I hope the Taiwan issue can be resolved peacefully, and I also hope political power transitions can be smooth.

Lastly, there is a misalignment in education and values. The rise of AI may create some jobs, but it is expected to eliminate more office jobs. In contrast, manual labor is currently the least impacted. This means we no longer need as much higher education unless you are among the top 1%. Currently, 60% of new employment in China is concentrated in retail, catering, logistics, security, and cleaning, and this will only increase. The cultural and sports industries are also struggling, the manufacturing industry is already weak, and finance is being suppressed. Moreover, with the one-child policy, children are highly praised and pampered, with a widespread desire for sons to succeed. The pressure on young people and the values they are taught may be at odds with the realities they will face later.

Vibrant elderly people, lethargic young people, and half-dead middle-aged people.

This may be a snapshot of the current era and also a glimpse into the future.

In this age, we must nurture our children well, but we must also nurture ourselves. Each generation has its own destiny. After all, most of the people who have existed in history have not left descendants.

1. 国内货币政策要实行QE，无风险利率5年内降到0，并且会长期处于零利率或负利率状态。目前来看利率下调太慢
2. 中央财政会加码，提高负债率和财政支出力度，直到实行MMT。财政制度尤其是地方财政亟待改革。目前来看并不乐观，改革举步维艰
3. 国内经济恢复的速度取决于利率下行的速度以及财政支出情况。短期仍需保障房和基建拉动，长期需要消费和民生保障。目前来看并不乐观，刺激幅度不够
4. 人民币会继续缓慢贬值，直到无风险利率降为0
5. 以人民币计价资产均会贬值，持续通缩，直到无风险利率降为0
6. 房产全面贬值。一线城市房价会在无风险利率降为0后稳住，二线其他城市核心地段也是。其他城市房产再无价值
7. 与西方的对立和经济战无法避免，若15年内能避免热战，则可以平稳度过
8. 公务员铁饭碗打破，基本待遇一般，导致贪腐无法避免。这会进一步导致产业向大城市集中，清廉地区集中。
9. 全球民族主义以及保守主义风潮来袭，所有在上一轮全球化实体企业均会受损，反而仍然能全球同行的资产会收益。因此黄金具有长期投资价值，加密货币更甚（但是目前价格难以判断）
10. 横扫全球市场的科技股具有长期投资价值，包括可能有的中国企业。

清晨的阳光洒在我的脸上。因为十一假期，小区里的人大多不用早起。外面窸窸窣窣的只有鸟叫声，各种各样的鸟叫声。金秋十月的天气让人非常舒服。凉爽的微风，柔和的阳光，仿佛想要勾起赖床的人们出来玩。

今天是十一假期的第二天，自我重新工作以来，好久没有这么惬意的长假了。上次放长假，还要数宝宝出生。而现在家中的崽已经2个半月了。当爸爸的日子比之前辛苦一些。而我现在难得享受片刻清晨的宁静，独自一人在阳台边的沙发上。卧室里，家中的两个宝贝正在熟睡。她们睡得很好，我很开心。

整个九月，我忙中偷闲把大明王朝1566的解说给看了，了解了一下国产顶级历史权谋剧。有时候看着傻傻的弹幕，以及想着傻傻的自己，觉得好单纯。世界有时候可能很复杂，而自己处理的确很简单。老婆有一句话总结的很对，我经常小孩脾气。我现在也尝试接受一些不同的策略，包括为人处世。虽然自己是个淡泊名利的人，但是在术方面，还希望有所掌握。

这仿佛有回到18岁读《明朝那些事儿》时候的我，对于知识是充满渴望的。那是以为掌握很多知识，就会变得很厉害。现在，引用B站解说的一句话，“最值得推敲的，还是史册里的人心”。

你需要主动去摸索人心。然后有目的的去做一些事情，很重要。无论是自我驱动，还是结交朋友。哪怕是对着电脑前一个人炒股票，知识固然重要，你也要推敲，市场上的人心。趁着国庆前后，市场的极大波动，这正是个推敲人心的好机会。

当然这些都属于成年人，属于娃娃的，是要保持一颗好奇心，对于这个世界的好奇。

一转眼，娃已经2个月了。一切的成长都走向正轨了。当然，她妈妈为了宝宝各种事情都居功至伟，甚至比对她自己还上心。

昨天晚上，她戏谑的对我说，假如我真的有一天和她离婚了，一定要把娃给她。可以看的出，那份母爱的浓烈啊，是那种倾其所有也要对她好的感觉，和娃的外婆一样。

这个家，离了妈妈就要散哦。这句话是早上妈妈睡觉前跟我说的。家里是离不了这个精明能干的女人。

昨天娃去打疫苗发烧了，希望她可以快快好起来。

最近睡的都很早，睡眠的时间很长。经常会做很多稀奇古怪的梦。但是睡得长了，中间反而容易醒，经常是夜间突然醒来。开始惦记着自己操心的事情。

我其实是一个不太容易操心的人，喜欢随遇而安。但是表面上的不经意，并不代表真的没有事情藏在心里。有些事情，你明知他影响很大，就不可能完全无视他。更何况就是未知本身。

小时候上学，老师总是教导我们，要做一个有理想的好青年。其实当时就没想明白，觉得只是老师说的鼓励孩子们追求上进的话。现在看来，有理想也并不是一件很容易的。甚至晚上做梦的人，在白天也不一定真的敢去做梦。

想做一件事，并朝之持之以恒坚持不懈的努力，直至成功，是一件很美好的事情。但是就像许秀说的，也许失败才是人生的主旋律。

亦或许随遇而安对于现状是一个褒义词，但对于未来却是一个贬义词。就像我的经历，对我的未来是宝贵的财富，但对于现在只是枷锁和桎梏。

就像你说的，我没有自信，也没有抱负。不知道自己该做什么，怎么做，过去的东西都丢掉了。

要认清世界，了解自己，探索未来不是一件容易的事。

首先，你得先做一个敢做梦的人。

我潜意识里的生活中一定还有很多不完美或不愉快的事情，不然为什么每次出差换新床这么容易做噩梦。

大约从我走出校园开始，读书的时光伴随我越来越少。我认识这个世界，了解这个世界的方式更多变成了亲身体验。而这些看似在经历之前可能觉得平平无奇的事情，还是带给我很多不一样的冲击。

昨天，我和老婆一起参加了蔡依林在上海的演唱会。近距离接触这位伴随我儿时成长的idol，以及感受粉丝们山呼海啸般的热情，让我对演唱会这个事情有了全新的体验和认知。

蔡依林一直以来给我的印象都是努力认真的女歌手。对于她的作品，主要还停留在舞娘及以前的歌曲上。没想到这么多年，她几乎已经变成华语乐坛顶流的唱跳艺人。也有像《玫瑰少年》这样的佳作。对此，我很感慨也很佩服这位偶像。尤其是在整个演唱会第四part，她分享了一些内心感受的时候，我感受到了她成长的一面以及务实的一面。

然后就是粉丝的表现。我没有追过星，也没有见过疯狂的粉丝。但是，昨晚的粉丝是热烈的，投入的，愉快的。当镜头一次又一次的对准场内的粉丝的时候，他们都在卖力的打call，甚至一起合唱。很难想象这是40多岁的偶像，以及30多岁的粉丝们。当你的青春短暂和你的生活重新又有交织的时候。他们又会理性而又疯狂的迎接他们的偶像。这也许就是粉丝们的二象性吧。

政治文化方面，这次演唱会的歌词还是有些改编。特务J还是变成了舞J。虽然无伤大雅，但是G点如此的高，还是让人不免有点担心。照此趋势，自我审查自我阉割的意识只会越来越强。这对国内的文娱产业，甚至华语的文化影响都是深远的。联想到之前与台湾艺人疯狂的对立情绪。恐怕这辈子华语音乐都回不到当年的巅峰也未可知。

最后，我想聊聊美好的事情。在本次演唱会之前，我就有心理准备，位置可能不是很好，天气可能有点热，距离舞台有点远。但我也知道，演唱会就是听个气氛。事实上，也验证了我的猜测。但瑕不掩瑜，这次演唱会还是给我留下来很好的体验。就是这个气氛，非常棒。让我一个路人都跟着音乐一起摇摆。在整个社会、经济、政治、文化都在颓势的时候，这无疑是一道光。迷人的音乐，动人的舞姿，感人的气氛，像一道美丽的色彩照进生活中。也许就是ugly中的beauty吧。

静止了，所有的花开